Driving factors of influenza transmission in the Netherlands.
Identifieur interne : 000151 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000150; suivant : 000152Driving factors of influenza transmission in the Netherlands.
Auteurs : Dennis E. Te Beest ; Michiel Van Boven ; Mariëtte Hooiveld ; Carline Van Den Dool ; Jacco WallingaSource :
- American journal of epidemiology [ 1476-6256 ] ; 2013.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Facteurs temps (MeSH), Grippe humaine (transmission), Grippe humaine (épidémiologie), Humains (MeSH), Médecins généralistes (statistiques et données numériques), Pays-Bas (épidémiologie), Prédisposition aux maladies (épidémiologie), Saisons (MeSH), Temps (météorologie) (MeSH), Vacances (MeSH), Épidémies (MeSH), Établissements scolaires (statistiques et données numériques).
- MESH :
- statistiques et données numériques : Médecins généralistes, Établissements scolaires.
- épidémiologie : Grippe humaine, Pays-Bas, Prédisposition aux maladies.
- Facteurs temps, Humains, Saisons, Temps (météorologie), Vacances, Épidémies.
- Wicri :
- geographic : Pays-Bas.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Disease Susceptibility (epidemiology), Epidemics (MeSH), General Practitioners (statistics & numerical data), Holidays (MeSH), Humans (MeSH), Influenza, Human (epidemiology), Influenza, Human (transmission), Netherlands (epidemiology), Schools (statistics & numerical data), Seasons (MeSH), Time Factors (MeSH), Weather (MeSH).
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : Netherlands.
- epidemiology : Disease Susceptibility, Influenza, Human.
- statistics & numerical data : General Practitioners, Schools.
- transmission : Influenza, Human.
- Epidemics, Holidays, Humans, Seasons, Time Factors, Weather.
Abstract
Influenza epidemics in temperate regions show a characteristic seasonal pattern with peak incidence occurring in winter. Previous research has shown that low absolute humidity and school holidays can both affect influenza transmission. During an epidemic, transmission is strongly influenced by the depletion of susceptibles (i.e., increase in the number of those immune). To assess how much variability in influenza transmission intensity is due to each of these driving factors, we used a long time series of the number of weekly visits to general practitioners for influenzalike illness in the Netherlands from 1970-2011 and transformed this into a time series of weekly influenza reproduction numbers, which are a measure of transmission intensity. We used statistical regression techniques to quantify how the reproduction numbers were affected by each driving factor. We found a clear ranking of importance of driving factors in explaining the variation in transmission intensity. Most of the variation (30%) was explained by the depletion of susceptibles during the season, 27% was explained by between-season effects, and 3% was explained by absolute humidity. School holidays at the Christmas period did not have a statistically significant effect on influenza transmission. Although the influence of absolute humidity was small, its seasonal fluctuations may determine when sustained influenza transmission is possible and may thus drive influenza seasonality.
DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwt132
PubMed: 24029683
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
Le document en format XML
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Te Beest</name></author><author><name sortKey="Van Boven, Michiel" sort="Van Boven, Michiel" uniqKey="Van Boven M" first="Michiel" last="Van Boven">Michiel Van Boven</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hooiveld, Mariette" sort="Hooiveld, Mariette" uniqKey="Hooiveld M" first="Mariëtte" last="Hooiveld">Mariëtte Hooiveld</name></author><author><name sortKey="Van Den Dool, Carline" sort="Van Den Dool, Carline" uniqKey="Van Den Dool C" first="Carline" last="Van Den Dool">Carline Van Den Dool</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wallinga, Jacco" sort="Wallinga, Jacco" uniqKey="Wallinga J" first="Jacco" last="Wallinga">Jacco Wallinga</name></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2013">2013</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:24029683</idno><idno type="pmid">24029683</idno><idno type="doi">10.1093/aje/kwt132</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Corpus">000135</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000135</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">000135</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Curation">000135</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">000135</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Driving factors of influenza transmission in the Netherlands.</title><author><name sortKey="Te Beest, Dennis E" sort="Te Beest, Dennis E" uniqKey="Te Beest D" first="Dennis E" last="Te Beest">Dennis E. Te Beest</name></author><author><name sortKey="Van Boven, Michiel" sort="Van Boven, Michiel" uniqKey="Van Boven M" first="Michiel" last="Van Boven">Michiel Van Boven</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hooiveld, Mariette" sort="Hooiveld, Mariette" uniqKey="Hooiveld M" first="Mariëtte" last="Hooiveld">Mariëtte Hooiveld</name></author><author><name sortKey="Van Den Dool, Carline" sort="Van Den Dool, Carline" uniqKey="Van Den Dool C" first="Carline" last="Van Den Dool">Carline Van Den Dool</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wallinga, Jacco" sort="Wallinga, Jacco" uniqKey="Wallinga J" first="Jacco" last="Wallinga">Jacco Wallinga</name></author></analytic><series><title level="j">American journal of epidemiology</title><idno type="eISSN">1476-6256</idno><imprint><date when="2013" type="published">2013</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Disease Susceptibility (epidemiology)</term><term>Epidemics (MeSH)</term><term>General Practitioners (statistics & numerical data)</term><term>Holidays (MeSH)</term><term>Humans (MeSH)</term><term>Influenza, Human (epidemiology)</term><term>Influenza, Human (transmission)</term><term>Netherlands (epidemiology)</term><term>Schools (statistics & numerical data)</term><term>Seasons (MeSH)</term><term>Time Factors (MeSH)</term><term>Weather (MeSH)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Facteurs temps (MeSH)</term><term>Grippe humaine (transmission)</term><term>Grippe humaine (épidémiologie)</term><term>Humains (MeSH)</term><term>Médecins généralistes (statistiques et données numériques)</term><term>Pays-Bas (épidémiologie)</term><term>Prédisposition aux maladies (épidémiologie)</term><term>Saisons (MeSH)</term><term>Temps (météorologie) (MeSH)</term><term>Vacances (MeSH)</term><term>Épidémies (MeSH)</term><term>Établissements scolaires (statistiques et données numériques)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Netherlands</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Disease Susceptibility</term><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="statistics & numerical data" xml:lang="en"><term>General Practitioners</term><term>Schools</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="statistiques et données numériques" xml:lang="fr"><term>Médecins généralistes</term><term>Établissements scolaires</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Grippe humaine</term><term>Pays-Bas</term><term>Prédisposition aux maladies</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Epidemics</term><term>Holidays</term><term>Humans</term><term>Seasons</term><term>Time Factors</term><term>Weather</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Facteurs temps</term><term>Humains</term><term>Saisons</term><term>Temps (météorologie)</term><term>Vacances</term><term>Épidémies</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Wicri" type="geographic" xml:lang="fr"><term>Pays-Bas</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Influenza epidemics in temperate regions show a characteristic seasonal pattern with peak incidence occurring in winter. Previous research has shown that low absolute humidity and school holidays can both affect influenza transmission. During an epidemic, transmission is strongly influenced by the depletion of susceptibles (i.e., increase in the number of those immune). To assess how much variability in influenza transmission intensity is due to each of these driving factors, we used a long time series of the number of weekly visits to general practitioners for influenzalike illness in the Netherlands from 1970-2011 and transformed this into a time series of weekly influenza reproduction numbers, which are a measure of transmission intensity. We used statistical regression techniques to quantify how the reproduction numbers were affected by each driving factor. We found a clear ranking of importance of driving factors in explaining the variation in transmission intensity. Most of the variation (30%) was explained by the depletion of susceptibles during the season, 27% was explained by between-season effects, and 3% was explained by absolute humidity. School holidays at the Christmas period did not have a statistically significant effect on influenza transmission. Although the influence of absolute humidity was small, its seasonal fluctuations may determine when sustained influenza transmission is possible and may thus drive influenza seasonality.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">24029683</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2013</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>23</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2013</Year><Month>10</Month><Day>31</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1476-6256</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>178</Volume><Issue>9</Issue><PubDate><Year>2013</Year><Month>Nov</Month><Day>01</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>American journal of epidemiology</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Am. J. Epidemiol.</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Driving factors of influenza transmission in the Netherlands.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>1469-77</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1093/aje/kwt132</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>Influenza epidemics in temperate regions show a characteristic seasonal pattern with peak incidence occurring in winter. Previous research has shown that low absolute humidity and school holidays can both affect influenza transmission. During an epidemic, transmission is strongly influenced by the depletion of susceptibles (i.e., increase in the number of those immune). To assess how much variability in influenza transmission intensity is due to each of these driving factors, we used a long time series of the number of weekly visits to general practitioners for influenzalike illness in the Netherlands from 1970-2011 and transformed this into a time series of weekly influenza reproduction numbers, which are a measure of transmission intensity. We used statistical regression techniques to quantify how the reproduction numbers were affected by each driving factor. We found a clear ranking of importance of driving factors in explaining the variation in transmission intensity. Most of the variation (30%) was explained by the depletion of susceptibles during the season, 27% was explained by between-season effects, and 3% was explained by absolute humidity. School holidays at the Christmas period did not have a statistically significant effect on influenza transmission. Although the influence of absolute humidity was small, its seasonal fluctuations may determine when sustained influenza transmission is possible and may thus drive influenza seasonality.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>te Beest</LastName><ForeName>Dennis E</ForeName><Initials>DE</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>van Boven</LastName><ForeName>Michiel</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Hooiveld</LastName><ForeName>Mariëtte</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>van den Dool</LastName><ForeName>Carline</ForeName><Initials>C</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Wallinga</LastName><ForeName>Jacco</ForeName><Initials>J</Initials></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D013485">Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2013</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>12</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>United States</Country><MedlineTA>Am J Epidemiol</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>7910653</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>0002-9262</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D004198" MajorTopicYN="N">Disease Susceptibility</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D058872" MajorTopicYN="N">Epidemics</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D058005" MajorTopicYN="N">General Practitioners</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000706" MajorTopicYN="N">statistics & numerical data</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006693" MajorTopicYN="N">Holidays</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006801" MajorTopicYN="N">Humans</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D007251" MajorTopicYN="N">Influenza, Human</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="Y">epidemiology</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000635" MajorTopicYN="Y">transmission</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D009426" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">Netherlands</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D012574" MajorTopicYN="N">Schools</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000706" MajorTopicYN="N">statistics & numerical data</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D012621" MajorTopicYN="N">Seasons</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D013997" MajorTopicYN="N">Time Factors</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D014887" MajorTopicYN="N">Weather</DescriptorName></MeshHeading></MeshHeadingList><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">epidemic modeling</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">influenza</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">seasonality</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">transmission dynamics</Keyword></KeywordList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2013</Year><Month>9</Month><Day>14</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2013</Year><Month>9</Month><Day>14</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2013</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>24</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>ppublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">24029683</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">kwt132</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1093/aje/kwt132</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></PubmedData></pubmed><affiliations><list></list><tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Hooiveld, Mariette" sort="Hooiveld, Mariette" uniqKey="Hooiveld M" first="Mariëtte" last="Hooiveld">Mariëtte Hooiveld</name><name sortKey="Te Beest, Dennis E" sort="Te Beest, Dennis E" uniqKey="Te Beest D" first="Dennis E" last="Te Beest">Dennis E. Te Beest</name><name sortKey="Van Boven, Michiel" sort="Van Boven, Michiel" uniqKey="Van Boven M" first="Michiel" last="Van Boven">Michiel Van Boven</name><name sortKey="Van Den Dool, Carline" sort="Van Den Dool, Carline" uniqKey="Van Den Dool C" first="Carline" last="Van Den Dool">Carline Van Den Dool</name><name sortKey="Wallinga, Jacco" sort="Wallinga, Jacco" uniqKey="Wallinga J" first="Jacco" last="Wallinga">Jacco Wallinga</name></noCountry></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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